Bitcoin Rises, Institucional Stacks and Retail Snoozes
Is the Next Bull Run Leaving Retail Behind?
Bitcoin surged to $66,000, marking a 5% gain on the day and reigniting hopes for the historic October bull run.
The rally began in the early morning hours before Western markets opened, potentially driven by announcements from China regarding new economic stimulus.
On Saturday, China’s Finance Minister Lan Foan revealed plans to "significantly increase" government debt to stimulate economic activity, though no specifics on timing or scale were provided. Despite the lack of details, the Shanghai Composite (SSEC) gained 2.07%, and the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 (CSI300) rose 1.91% during the day.
Another factor influencing Bitcoin’s rise could be the latest projections for the U.S. election, where Trump is now leading by 5 points. Speculation about a potential "Red Wave" — a scenario in which the Republican Party controls the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives — has gained traction.
So, did Bitcoin rise on China’s stimulus news? Or due to Trump’s potential comeback? Perhaps both. Or maybe neither. As a friend once put it, “It was just time.” Ultimately, the reason doesn’t matter.
What does matter?
Public companies are racing to accumulate Bitcoin, while retail investors appear to be sitting on the sidelines.
Today, German publicly-listed asset manager Samara announced plans to issue €30 million in debt to expand its Bitcoin holdings. CEO Patrick Lowry, a long-time Bitcoin advocate, told Cointelegraph that Samara currently holds 421 Bitcoin and aims to increase that to at least 1,000 by year-end. Lowry also tweeted:
“Not sure it’s possible, but it’d be a dream to stack as much as Michael Saylor.”
MicroStrategy now holds 244,800 Bitcoins, more than both the U.S. and Chinese governments. But it’s not just MicroStrategy and Samara. Dozens of public and private companies are now in the race to accumulate Bitcoin, collectively holding about 722,000 BTC.
The day was also active for Bitcoin ETFs and related stocks. MicroStrategy was the third most traded stock of the day, following only Nvidia and Tesla. By midday, over $1 billion had been traded in BlackRock’s ETF, making it the fifth-highest volume of the day.
However, what truly stands out is the lack of retail attention. Despite Bitcoin's surge, retail investors appear to be disengaged.
Google searches for "Bitcoin" are near their lowest point in five years.
You might argue, “Nobody Googles Bitcoin anymore.”
But the story is the same across any retail-focused metric. For instance, Hodl Waves’ Realized Cap shows limited short-term activity in Bitcoin holdings.
Source: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/realized-cap-hodl-waves/
This leads to an important question: At what price will retail investors jump back in?
We’ll likely find out in the coming months. If history repeats itself, and Q4 delivers its typical 80% average gain, retail investors may finally wake up to Bitcoin’s momentum.
Source: https://www.coinglass.com/today